Results Time

Well, it’s 2013.  It is absolutely astounding how fast time flies.  The research I started, what seems like ages ago, is finally coming to fruition.  I set out back in June 2011, to set up an Alumni network that would help keep us all in touch and up to date on what’s going on.  I’ve got some data on all of the network ties that were set up and they’re pretty interesting and surprising.  I set up this blog, a Facebook page, LinkedIn subgroup and twitter feed.  Each channel ended up being so very different!  By far there are more LinkedIn group members than anything else with 104 in that group.  There are 67 in the Facebook page.  The blog get’s quite a lot of traffic but I’m hard pressed to tell you how many of those are actually IB alumni.  This blog gets over 1000 views every month from over 131 different countries!  That’s something!

With the exception of a handful of people out there, my lovely alumni, you have been so very quiet.  I would love to hear what you’re up to.   What countries are you in and what are you doing?  Did you open a surf shop in Bali?  I myself graduated in 2004 and am finishing my masters degree and working at JAMK as a secretary.  Who knows what the future will bring?  IB as a programme is doing well.  The next round of entrance exams will be in April with 50 fresh faces coming in fall.  Risto Korkia-Aho is still taking care of International matters but no longer teaches language courses.  Matti Hirsilä is still our fearless leader.  Kevin Manninen has moved back to the USA and Robert Webber turned up in the UK and all is well with him.  Those of you that know the “Robert Webber Mystery” will understand why that’s so funny.  Juha Saukkonen, Heidi Neuvonen, Steven Crawford and Piotr Krawczyk still maintain their teaching positions and are as innovative as ever.

Limit Breakers bit the dust some time back.  It just couldn’t cope with the changes and had to be closed down.  All good things must end.  On a good note a new study track in music and media management will be added  to the IB curriculum.  You may have heard about the High Tech Management study track, but there’s also a ‘Culture’ study track which examines cross cultural communication in the work place.  Life is good.  Wherever this might find you, I hope you’re doing well and wish you all the best in 2013!

Best Regards,

Alison

 

Possible roads for our lives to take– Part 4: Flourishing of democracy or Erosion of political power

By Juha Saukkonen
JAMK Senior Lecturer

Last but not least of the potential bifurcation (development crossroad from which the development can start going to two different directions) points is about what will happen to the decision-making systems in our societies. More exactly: Is participatory democracy about to be replaced by some other systems or even gaining more strength?

Pros for “Flourishing democracy”?

The proponents of democracy state that:

1)      Democracy when exercised in a right way is:

• one of the central and natural values we share
• is a way of deciding
• is a way to discussion of things of importance
• believed in by the people (70 % (Finland) of people are interested in politics + 90 % believe that you can affect the future development by voting

Believers in Erosion of political power say that:

• Participatory democracy was founded on the mental model of industrial era, it has not corrected itself when world around has changed (quoting Mika Mannermaa)
• The democracy as exercised today is going for majority vote. But there are no more majorities in our society, but a collection of minorities that change in size and shape dependent on the issue at hand
• Democracy has been very slow/ inefficient tool in solving the most nasty problems around

Which group do you support? Is participatory democracy taking its last breath, or just on low mode waiting for new revival?

In the next blog post I will present the summary view – the most-likely scenario that the members in the summer seminar of Finnish Society for Futures research voted for. You can start creating your own “World view” along these 4 issues we have talked about. (Hint:  In many cases a synthesis of the two opposite views was created – combining the best parts of both ends of the axis. You can start creating them also yourself). Coming to the blog next week….

Possible Roads for our Lives to Take– Part 3: Systemic Intelligence or Move to Simplicism

By Juha Saukkonen
JAMK IB Senior Lecturer

The world of today is complex and systemic, no doubt about that. We have all seen how events e.g. in one nation’s economic climate starts a chain of events on many fronts. The intellectual and technological tools to model, forecast and steer these systems is an area of constant and even accelerating development. Believers in Systemic Intelligence have lately been confronted with views from opposite school: Simplicists, as the (sadly) late Finnish Futures thinker Mika Mannermaa put it. Both have their arguments, and I challenge you, IB Blog readers once again to think what is your “futurible” – image of future – in this respect.

Why systems and system intelligence?

The proponents of continuing era of system understanding (very short version) say that:

1. If we do not even try to understand systems and their operating logic, we are hiding our heads in the sand. The world is made of complex interactions, and our understanding of them should and could be improved.
2. System models built by economists and politicians are not perfect, admittedly, but their motivation is sound and healthy. By using certain reasonable pre-assumptions and limitations, we can approximate what course of action in a bigger system will follow when a certain decision is done by one member in the system. The system is a simulation that tries to predict or explain that if we do A then B will follow, using some assumptions and simplifications, but still trying to maintain “wisdom of the system”, so be able to show relations between different actions and actors in the marketplace, political system etc.

Simplicism as an alternative?

The school of simplicism (it is not – at least not yet – a formal group of thinkers or movement) say that believing in the wisdom of the system intelligence creates risks. Automated stock trading systems can be seen as part of that risk creation? And in order to reduce risks we then create new and better systems…the cycle is never-ending. Mannermaa even saw as one future profession being “simplicism consultant”, who helps people and organisations to reinvent the core, the truly essential things to concentrate on instead of trying to create understanding of a very complex whole we call system. Some of the principles that would step in would be such as 1) leaving out some factors 2) forgetting the past 3) being satisfied with mediocrity etc. Interesting, but is it possible? And would it mean abandoning the value of vast information gathered and created over the decades and centuries in our societies…

How do YOU stand in respect to these possible futures on this line between Systems and Simplicism?

Possible roads for our lives to take– Part 2: Lonely Riders vs. Organizational Human Beings

 

By Juha Saukkonen
JAMK Senior Lecturer

The development of societies and firms has not only been the magnitude/size of their operations but also the ways they are organized and managed.  New organizational forms and structures, new functions and levels of command and control have taken place as a natural part of advancement.

One debate area is: Are we already seeing the end of this era of organization, or will it go on its evolutionary path? So we come to the next important crossroad that can affect the management of resources on society or company (+personal level).

Will future be the one of Lonely Riders or Organisational Human Beings?

The proponents of continuing era of organizations is basing their statement on few key principles:

1. Organizing is a natural human act. Our ancestors joined their forces and divided the tasks in order to hunt, cultivate the land etc. A sole human acting alone had little chance of survival.
2. People are social by definition. They need a group to belong to, and an organization also offers basic soil for feeling safe
3. In an organization you are in constant interaction with others, offering a platform to share, learn and have an impact on others

The ones opting for Lonely Riders believe that people will be increasingly acting in an unit of one. The strong metaphor is taken from good old Wild West films, where John Wayne (originally named Marion Morrison!) rode to the town that was  in trouble,  cleared the town of “bad boys”, put back his still smoking revolvers and rode into the sunset (to a new town in pain…).  How does this relate to the (working) life of the future, then? Potentially, people want to concentrate on “doin’ the right thing” instead of sitting in meetings, writing company-widely distributed memos, filling out forms that keep the bureaucracy alive. On the other hand, the ones having special skills and competences will productize them (and themselves) and sell the expertise to a larger and varying clientele, instead of staying in the payroll of one company alone. “Johnwaynism” may be also be driven by the need to better balance life at work and off.  Work harder when private life allows that, then shifting down when necessary.

How do YOU stand in respect to these possible futures on this line between Lonely Riders and Organisations?

 

Living in a Non-Growth World?

By Juha Saukkonen
JAMK IB Senior Lecturer

I participated 2 weeks back a seminar of the Finnish Futures Research Society. The whole 2 days were dedicated to discuss the scenario of Western democracies going and even staying in low/no-growth economy. For example Leena Ilmola from IIASA (an institute of advanced simulations) has been with her colleagues lately working on Wild cards – unexpected, low probability turns in development and their impact on the global village. They can naturally be also positive but if negative, the scientific community talks about Black Swans. Just thinking about this year: the “big” events of the 2011 – Japanese tsunami, dictatorships falling in Arab world, massacre in Norway – had a low probability to happen but they did, and impacts to individual societies and the global systems we can all read about and feel ourselves. By the way, can you guess what was the forecasted probability of Lehman Brothers bankruptcy as calculated by experts at the start of 2008. The answer: 0,0000000000000000000007…

That trivial fact is rather alarming, is our ability to foresee and prepare on that level really?

However, the news of the day was: In the most recent scenarios High Growth for developed economies has become a Wild Card: it is not the probable world view from this moment to some 20 years ahead. Roller coaster ride with upturns and downturns can change to be a long period of low- or no-growth.

This rises to my mind a few questions:

• Are firms and governments taking this scenario seriously and equipped to survive in that scenario ?
• Are all the tools and strategies we and other business schools teach up-to-date for that new world order, or should we find and develop new ones?

I have no firm answers to my own questions, but would appreciate views and opinions from fellow IB bloggers!!! Next week I am in a seminar in Aalto Venture Garage in Espoo, listening to growth business guru Steve Blank (U can google him, or try to get your hands on his book “4 steps to epiphany”). Perhaps I will then be able to start to mould new thinking in my mind: How to grow a particular business in a non-growth world…I will keep you posted!

Cheers – Juha